| Abstract |
The grounding of a 400-meter long container vessel, called Ever Given, in the Suez Canal blocked the busiest
shipping lane, which is responsible for 12% of seaborne trade, for 6 days. Some shipping companies had to
divert their vessels and they had to take a much longer route around Africa to reach European ports. The concerned shipping industry started to look for alternative sea route to the Suez Canal with lesser risk of blockage,
without a need to go around Africa. Such routes, which connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, exist in the
Arctic and the warming of the global climate makes them more accessible over time but the assessment of their
viability requires a multifaceted analysis based on available professional navigational publications, scientific
papers, and knowledge of polar shipping realities. Several nautical aspects are taken into account with the
purpose of choosing a polar route that is most suitable as an alternative to the Suez Canal. Three routes are
under consideration. One of them is the Northern Sea Route in the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean, along the
coast of the Russian Federation. The second route is the Northwest Passage through the western part of the
Arctic, passing waters belonging to Greenland, Canada, and the United States. The third one passes near the
North Pole, a prospective route that may become available for commercial shipping in the future due to Arctic
ice shrinkage, and it is known as the Transpolar Route. Analysis of these routes unambiguously point to the
Northern Sea Route as the only viable option. Most prospective alternatives to the Suez Canal are technically
feasible with the new generation of cargo vessels and they are experiencing a growth in maritime traffic together with a steady development of associated infrastructure. The existing simplified analyses of the transit
costs, assuming strait passage in polar waters without any course deviation and the additional fuel that is burnt
to overcome increased friction during passage in ice, shows that under present conditions that the Suez Canal
Route is still cheaper than any polar transit and, moreover, offers year-round availability. It cannot be ruled out
that the upcoming warming of the Arctic climate, and a lowering of the transit tariffs by the Russian Federation
may tip the balance in favor of the Northern Sea Route. Presented here is an analysis of the competitiveness of
the Arctic Routes in comparison to the Suez Canal from the perspective of the mariner. |
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