English Polish
Akademia Morska w Szczecinie

DSpace Home

DSpace/Manakin Repository

Title
Influence of COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on international oil markets

ISSN printed: 1733-8670, ISSN on-line: 2392-0378
Tvalchrelidze, Alexander G.1; Silagadze, Avtandil2
URI: https://repository.am.szczecin.pl/handle/123456789/2641
2020-09-16
At the beginning of the COVID-19 coronavirus global pandemic, the oil market was crushed. In this period, the oil market was correlated with COVID-19 coronavirus world infection cases: more infected cases resulted in low oil prices, and the negative correlation between these two indices was very strong. Different factors determined the increase in both crude oil price and the number of oil futures contracts after April 20. Firstly, oil prices were driven by the coronavirus mortality rate, rather than by the absolute number of infection cases. The decisive driver for oil prices in the medium-term became pandemic development trends, instead of the actual epidemiological situation. This statement is proven by the statistical regression model of the interdependence between oil prices and COVID-19 coronavirus world mortality rate. Secondly, a gradual stable decrease in the coronavirus world mortality rate created an environment for the gradual restart of the world economy. Thirdly, the coronavirus mortality rate analysis provides investors with tangible guidelines to assess the medium-term sustainability of futures markets and, therefore, to elaborate investment strategies. Fourthly, after April 20, the oil market gradually achieved equilibrium, which is proven by a restored correlation between oil prices and the Euro-to-U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Three-month tendencies provide tangible guidelines for an optimistic forecast of the oil the market and maritime tanker business for the end of 2020 and all of 2021. So long as a new wave of COVID-19 does not dramatically increase mortality rates, the oil and maritime tanker trade market will regain the equilibrium it lost at the end of January.
  1. Albulescu, C.T. (2020) Coronavirus and oil price crash. [Online] 18 March. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract= 3553452 [Accessed: July 31, 2020], pp. 1–13., https://ssrn.com/abstract= 3553452
  2. Aloui, D., Goutte, S., Guesmi, K. & Hchaichi, R. (2020) COVID 19’s impact on crude oil and natural gas S&P GS Indexes. [Online] 28 April. Available at SSRN: https:// ssrn.com/abstract=3587740 [Accessed: July 31, 2020], pp. 1–16., https:// ssrn.com/abstract=3587740
  3. Alquist, R. & Coibion, O. (2014) Commodity price co-movement and global economic activity. Bank of Canada Working Paper 2014-32. Ottawa: Bank of Canada.,
  4. Browne, F. & Cronin, D. (2007) Commodity prices, money, and inflation. Working Paper Series No 738. Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank.,
  5. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G. (1992) On the behavior of commodity prices. Review of Economic Studies 59, pp. 1–23.,
  6. ECLAC (2020) Measuring the impact of COVID-19 with a view to reactivation. Special Report COVID-19, No. 2 [Online] 21 April. Available from: https://repositorio.cepal. org/bitstream/handle/11362/45477/6/S2000285_en.pdf [Accessed: July 29, 2020]., https://repositorio.cepal. org/bitstream/handle/11362/45477/6/S2000285_en.pdf
  7. Exchange Rates UK (2020) Euro (EUR) to US Dollar (USD) exchange rate history. [Online] Available from: https:// www.exchangerates.org.uk/EUR-USD-exchange-rate-history. html [Accessed: July 27, 2020]., https:// www.exchangerates.org.uk/EUR-USD-exchange-rate-history. html
  8. Jordà, Ò., Singh, S.R. & Taylor, A.M. (2020) Longer- run economic consequences of pandemics. Working Paper 2020-09. San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.,
  9. Lautier, D. (2009) Term structure models of commodity prices. Cahier de recherche du Cereg n° 2003–9. Paris: Centre de Recherches sur la Gestion, Université Paris Dauphine.,
  10. Liang, L.H. (2020) Crude tanker spot rates face negative impact in late-2020 and into 2021. [Online] May 22. Available from: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/ crude-tanker-spot-rates-face-negative-impact-late-2020- and-2021 [Accessed: July 29, 2020]., https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/ crude-tanker-spot-rates-face-negative-impact-late-2020- and-2021
  11. Malden, K. & Stephens, S. (2020) Cascading economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. U.S. – China Economic and Security Review Commission.,
  12. OECD (2020) The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on development finance. [Online] 24 June. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/ the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-crisis-on-development- finance-9de00b3b/ [Accessed: July 29, 2020]., http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/ the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-crisis-on-development- finance-9de00b3b/
  13. Sharif, A., Aloui, C. & Yarovaya, L. (2020) COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the waveletbased approach. International Review of Financial Analysis 70, Article 101496.,
  14. Ship Technology (2020) Coronavirus: the impact on global shipping. Regulation. [Online] Available from: https:// ship.nridigital.com/ship_may20/coronavirus_impact_global_ shipping [Accessed: July 28, 2020]., https:// ship.nridigital.com/ship_may20/coronavirus_impact_global_ shipping
  15. Silagadze, A., Atanelishvili, T. & Silagadze, N. (2019) Economic doctrines. The origins. New York: Nova Science Publishers Inc.,
  16. Statista (2020) Weekly Brent, OPEC basket, and WTI crude oil prices from December 30, 2019 to July 27, 2020. [Online] Available from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/326017/ weekly-crude-oil-prices/ [Accessed: July 29, 2020]., https://www.statista.com/statistics/326017/ weekly-crude-oil-prices/
  17. Tvalchrelidze, A.G. (2011) Economics of commodities and commodity markets. New York: Nova Science Publisher, Inc.,
  18. Tvalchrelidze, A.G. (2018) Commodity sector of the world: opportunities, challenges and lessons for Georgia. In: Proceeding of the 4th Scientific-Practical Conference on Up-to-Date Problems of Geology. Tbilisi: Georgian Technical University Press, pp. 106–108.,
  19. Tvalchrelidze, A.G. & Kervalishvili, P.J. (2019) Economic security of the southern Caucasus: opportunities and challenges. Nanotechnology Perceptions 15, pp. 21–47.,
  20. Tvalchrelidze, A. & Silagadze, A. (2013) Macroeconomic model for oil-exporting countries. Central Asia and the Caucasus 14, 4, pp. 118–144.,
  21. Tvalchrelidze, A. & Silagadze, A. (2020) COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic influence on crude oil prices: A preliminary statistical analysis. Economics and Business 2, pp. 72–82.,
  22. Worldometer (2020) COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic. [Online] Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/ coronavirus/ [Accessed: July 28, 2020]., https://www.worldometers.info/ coronavirus/
  23. WTO (2020) The COVID-19 pandemic and trade-related developments in LDCs. Geneva: WTO.,

Title

Influence of COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on international oil markets

Pages

97-103

Figures

7

Tables

2

ISSN printed

1733-8670

ISSN on-line

2392-0378

DOI

10.17402/444

Type

Journal

63 Scientific Journals of the Maritime University of Szczecin, no. 63 / 2020

Publisher

Scientific Journals Maritime University of Szczecin, Zeszyty Naukowe Akademia Morska w Szczecinie

Copyright Holder

Scientific Journals Maritime University of Szczecin, Zeszyty Naukowe Akademia Morska w Szczecinie

Published

2020-09-16

Recieved

2020-08-01

Accepted

2020-09-30

Funding

No data

Keywords

COVID-19, coronavirus, pandemic, oil price, tanker, correlation, regression equation, mortality rate

URI:

https://repository.am.szczecin.pl/handle/123456789/2641

Language

English

Authors

Tvalchrelidze, Alexander G.1; Silagadze, Avtandil2

Affiliation

1 Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Chavchavadze Ave., 1079 Tbilisi, Georgia, sandrotval@gmail.com
2 Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Chavchavadze Ave., 1079 Tbilisi, Georgia, sandrotval@gmail.com

Show full item record

Files in this item

Download paper in PDF format
Name: www-11-zn-am-63-1...
Size: 1.01 MB
Format: PDF
Licence: CC BY
Download

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Search repository

Advanced Search

Browse

My Account

RSS Feeds

XML

Cite