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Author Goerlandt, Floris
Affiliation Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering Marine Technology, Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety P.O. Box 14300, FI-00076 Aalto, Finland
E-mail floris.goerlandt@aalto.fi
ISSN printed 1733-8670
URI https://repository.am.szczecin.pl/handle/123456789/2407
Abstract Oil spills from maritime activities can lead to very extensive damage to the marine environment and disrupt maritime ecosystem services. Shipping is an important activity in the Northern Baltic Sea, and with the complex and dynamic ice conditions present in this sea area, navigational accidents occur rather frequently. Recent risk analysis results indicate those oil spills are particularly likely in the event of collisions. In Finnish sea areas, the current wintertime response preparedness is designed to a level of 5000 tonnes of oil, whereas a state-of-the-art risk analysis conservatively estimates that spills up to 15000 tonnes are possible. Hence, there is a need to more accurately estimate oil spill scenarios in the Northern Baltic Sea, to assist the relevant authorities in planning the response fleet organization and its operations. An issue that has not received prior consideration in maritime waterway oil spill analysis is the dynamics of the oil outflow, i.e. how the oil outflow extent depends on time. Hence, this paper focuses on time-dependent oil spill scenarios from collision accidents possibly occurring to tankers operating in the Northern Baltic Sea. To estimate these, a Bayesian Network model is developed, integrating information about designs of typical tankers operating in this area, information about possible damage scenarios in collision accidents, and a state-of-the-art time-domain oil outflow model. The resulting model efficiently provides information about the possible amounts of oil spilled in the sea in different periods of time, thus contributing to enhanced oil spill risk assessment and response preparedness planning.
Pages 9-20
Publisher Scientific Journals Maritime University of Szczecin, Zeszyty Naukowe Akademia Morska w Szczecinie
Keywords risk assessment
Keywords collision
Keywords oil spill
Keywords Bayesian network
Keywords maritime safety
Keywords marine environment
Title A model for oil spill scenarios from tanker collision accidents in the Northern Baltic Sea
Type Review article
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ISSN on-line 2392-0378
Language English
Funding The research presented in this paper has been conducted in the context of the ‘‘Strategic and Operational Risk Management for Wintertime Maritime Transportation System” (BONUS STORMWINDS) project. This has received funding from BONUS, the joint Baltic Sea research and development programme (Art 185), funded jointly from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration, and by the Academy of Finland. The financial support is acknowledged. The AIS data used in the traffic analysis was made available by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, based on an agreement with the Finnish Transport Agency regulating access to historic AIS data for scientific research purposes. The presented Bayesian Network models have been developed using GeNie modelling environment developed at the Decision Systems Laboratory, University of Pittsburgh, available from http://genie.sis.pitt.edu. Publication funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland from grant No. 790/P-DUN/2016 for the activities of promoting science (task No. 3 “Publications of foreign, distinguished scientists and their participation in the scientific board”).
Figures 8
Tables 7
DOI 10.17402/211
Published 2017-07-06
Accepted 2017-03-14
Recieved 2017-09-03

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